SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY

THE CREATION OF AN INCLUSIVE FUTURE

In 2009 the Dinokeng scenarios exercise was sponsored by Old Mutual and Nedbank Group. Calling on the collective experience and expertise of the various participants – representing the full spectrum of civil society and government, political parties, business, public administration, trade unions, religious groups, academia and the media – Dinokeng considered our nation’s key accomplishments and failures since 1994, and the critical challenges that lie ahead. The scenarios suggest three possible futures for South Africa and highlight the importance of adopting an approach of ‘walking together’ into the future through active citizen engagement with a government that listens and is effective, and shares a common national vision that cuts across economic self-interest in the short term.


	Dinokeng: a place of rivers. All our pasts have flowed together to meet at this place and time, and all our futures will flow from here . . .

Dinokeng scenarios – into the future together

During 2009, in response to critical challenges facing South Africa today, a group of 35 South Africans – representing the full spectrum of civil society and government, political parties, business, public administration, trade unions, religious groups, academia and the media – gathered to probe our country's present, and to consider possible futures. The purpose was to create a space and language for open, reflective and reasoned strategic conversation among the broad community of South Africans, about possible futures for the country, and the opportunities, risks and choices these futures present.

The Dinokeng scenarios exercise was sponsored by Old Mutual and Nedbank Group, who provided the funding, and project, infrastructure and logistical support. The initiative was conducted in the public interest, the agenda and outcome determined by the participants, and the results published in the public domain.

The scenario team met in the north-eastern corner of Gauteng known as Dinokeng. Dinokeng is in a catchment area between two rivers and its name is derived from the Sepedi word meaning 'a place where rivers flow together'. The location captured the spirit of the dialogues: a flowing together of ideas and perspectives in the forging of a common future.

The Dinokeng team comprised diverse individuals with widely differing perspectives and experiences. They debated robustly and did not agree on everything, but did share a common commitment to the principles of the Constitution, an appreciation of the heritage of our past, and a very real concern about how all of us, as citizens, can contribute to the construction of a sustainable future for South Africa.

Calling on the collective experience and expertise of the various participants, and with input from experts in various fields, the Dinokeng scenarios considered our nation's key accomplishments and failures since 1994, and the critical challenges that lie ahead. The scenarios suggest three possible futures for South Africa. These stories are intended to stimulate conversation among citizens as to their options and choices going forward.

First scenario: Walk apart

This is a scenario of 'musical chairs' or 'reshuffled elites'. It is triggered by the failure of leaders across all sectors to deal with the critical challenges facing our country. This failure is the result of political factionalism and weak, unaccountable leadership, weak capacity in government departments, and tightening economic constraints that are not dealt with realistically or inclusively. Consequently, society increasingly disengages as trust in public institutions diminishes. The state is increasingly bypassed by citizens, resulting in unaccountable groupings assuming power over parts of society. The gap between the leaders and the led widens. Citizens eventually lose patience and erupt into protest and unrest. The government, driven by its inability to meet citizens' demands and expectations, responds brutally, and a spiral of resistance and repression is unleashed. Decay and disintegration set in.

South Africa's critical social and economic challenges – especially related to unemployment and poverty, safety and security, education and health – have been exacerbated by a global economic crisis. If we fail to recognise the severity of our challenges, and if we fail to address them, we could experience the type of rapid disintegration and decline outlined in this scenario.

Second scenario: Walk behind

In this scenario, the state assumes the role of leader and manager. State planning and coordination are seen as central mechanisms for accelerating development and delivery to citizens, especially poor, unemployed and vulnerable people. The ruling party argues that strong state intervention in the economy is in accordance with global trends, and the electorate, concerned about the impacts of the global economic crisis, gives the ruling party a powerful mandate. Strong state intervention crowds out private initiative by business and civil society.

The risks of this scenario are twofold: first, the country would accumulate unsustainable debt, and, second, the state could become increasingly authoritarian. State-led development cannot succeed if state capacity is seriously lacking. In addition, pervasive state intervention, where the state is everything and all else is subordinate, breeds complacency and dependency among the citizenry. Strong state intervention crowds out private initiative by business and civil society.

Third scenario: Walk together

This is a scenario of active citizen engagement with a government that listens and is effective. It requires the engagement of citizens who demand better service delivery and government accountability. It is dependent on the will and ability of citizens to organise themselves and to engage the authorities, and on the quality of political leadership and its willingness to engage citizens. It entails a common national vision that cuts across economic self-interest in the short term.

This is not an easy scenario. Its path is uneven and it requires strong leadership from all sectors – especially citizens. We can address our critical challenges only if citizens' groups, business, labour and broader civil society engage with the state to improve delivery and enforce an accountable government.

For more detailed information on the Dinokeng scenarios visit www.dinokengscenarios.co.za.

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