Guide to the economy
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  2013  
  APRIL  
  International background and outlook / Domestic review and prospects
  Global economic conditions improved moderately in the first quarter, with the two largest economies showing further signs of recovery.
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  2013  
  JANUARY  
  International background and outlook / Domestic review and prospects
  The global slowdown continued into the final quarter, but some positive signs emerged.
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  2012  
  OCTOBER  
  International background and outlook / Domestic review and prospects
  The global slowdown continued into the third quarter. There was no relief for the Eurozone as recessionary conditions persisted, while industrial and retail conditions in the US and other developed countries lost further momentum . . .
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  2012  
  JULY  
  International background and outlook
  Global economic conditions deteriorated in the second quarter as the crisis in the Eurozone continued and other major economies faltered. There was a generalised slowdown in manufacturing and weaker employment conditions . . .
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  2012  
  APRIL  
  International background and outlook
  The global economy improved in the first quarter following late action by the European Central Bank (ECB) to stave off a full-blown banking crisis in Europe. The US economic upswing now looks more firmly based, with stronger employment creation over the past few months . . .
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  2011  
  DECEMBER  
  International background and outlook
  The global economic climate remains very vulnerable. Growth in developed countries continues to be hampered by high government debt levels, impaired banking systems and weak confidence. The worsening Eurozone crisis has made at least a mild recession in that region very likely and prospects elsewhere are modest . . .
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  SEPTEMBER  
  International background and outlook
  Risk aversion soared in the third quarter as recession fears resurfaced. Growth in the developed world failed to bounce back as expected following the restoration of most of the supply chain hurt by the Japanese natural and nuclear disasters earlier in the year . . .
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  JUNE  
  International background and outlook
  Global growth has slowed in recent weeks while inflation has remained relatively high. High unemployment, weak credit markets, and massive public and private debt . . .
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  FEBRUARY  
  International background and outlook
  The year has started with improved optimism following a difficult two years. Markets are reflecting the better sentiment and there is hope that a more normal pattern of growth will resume . . .
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  2010  
  SEPTEMBER  
  International background and outlook
  The global economic upswing has lost some momentum and is looking more fragile. Growth in most developed countries has slowed as the effects of earlier policy stimulus and the technical boost provided by the inventory cycle fade . . .
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  APRIL  
  International background and outlook / Domestic review and prospects
  The upswing in the global economy has gathered momentum, helped by some normalisation in spending and financial markets. The ongoing effects of the inventory cycle as well as stimulatory government and central bank policies will last into the second half of 2010 . . .
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  2009  
  DECEMBER  
  International background and outlook / Domestic review and prospects
  The recovery in the global economy became broaderbased in the second half of the year. Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in both developed and developing economies have stabilised the financial system, helped a recovery in asset prices . . .
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  AUGUST  
  International background and outlook / Domestic review and prospects
  Hopes of a recovery in the global economy have been spurred by some improvement in cyclical indicators. This has largely been facilitated by a massive monetary and fiscal policy stimulus across developing as well as emerging market economies . . .
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  APRIL  
  International background and outlook / Domestic review and prospects
  The global economy remains in the most severe recession since World War II. Although hopes are starting to grow that the worst of the contraction is now over, any recovery is likely to prove erratic . . .
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  JANUARY  
  International background and outlook / Domestic review and prospects
  The downturn in the global economy intensified in the fourth quarter. In advanced economies economic activity slowed significantly . . .
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  2008  
  OCTOBER  
  International background and outlook / Domestic review and prospects
  The global financial crisis worsened dramatically towards the end of the third quarter, culminating in massive nationalisations and bailout plan proposals . . .
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  JUNE  
  Is inflation alive again?
  After a remarkable period of low inflation, the past year has seen inflation globally creeping upwards . . .
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  FEBRUARY  
  The energy constraint
  The possibility of an energy constraint on economic growth emerging has been well documented for at least a decade, when a government White Paper famously noted that supply problems . . .
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  2007  
  OCTOBER  
  What a US recession might mean for South Africa
  If this occurs, it will be the first serious test of the decoupling theory that holds that other major economies . . .
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  JULY  
  Balance of payment drivers
  The current deficit remains wide, but its composition is improving . . .
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  APRIL  
  Is consumer debt worrying?
  The strong rise in debt is causing concern that household finances have become overstretched . . .
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  2006  
  DECEMBER  
  How 'constrained' is the economy?
  Economic growth has been very strong in recent years . . .
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  SEPTEMBER  
  How much further will interest rates rise?
  Globally, interest rates have been on the rise, moving off the lows seen in recent years . . .
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  MAY  
  Is the widening current account deficit a problem?
  Imports have been growing at a much quicker pace than exports . . .
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  JANUARY  
  Good prospects for investment
  The Nedbank Capital Expenditure Project Listing shows that fixed investment activity . . .
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  2005  
  NOVEMBER  
  Inflation on the rise?
  Globally and domestically inflation is on the way up . . .
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  AUGUST  
  Is structural change working?
  Economic growth is more buoyant, and inflation and interest rates are at their lowest . . .
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  MAY  
  Commodity prices: where to now?
  Commodity prices have recently come off their highs after rising dramatically . . .
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  2004  
  DECEMBER  
  Is the rand set to remain under R6 to the dollar?
  The collapse of the US dollar has greatly benefited the rand . . .
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  SEPTEMBER  
  Interest rates – entering uncharted territory?
  The recent interest rate cut is significant as it represents one of two possibilities . . .
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  JUNE  
  Global environment – trouble ahead?
  The international environment has improved over the past year as growth in the US and China . . .
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  JANUARY  
  Interest rates – where to now?
  A sudden weakening of the rand has reduced the chances of further monetary easing in the short term . . .
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  2003  
  AUGUST  
  The gyrating rand
  The rand's volatility over the past three years has been unprecedented . . .
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